Bullish on 2012 | Green Energy News

January 9, 2012 – Vol.16 No.43

BULLISH ON 2012.
by Bruce Mulliken, Green Energy News

So here we go again. Another presidential election year. Yuck. You know, we really should have one six year term, or something. That way a sitting president wouldn’t have to waste a whole year trying to keep his digs at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

There’s too much for a President to do than worry about campaigning. In the US, elections have become some kind of weird sport where everyone is misinformed, gets mad at each other, tells lies and is generally nasty. The elections are a dog fight that rips the country apart every four years. I’m sick of it.

I’ve moved myself and Green Energy News out of Baltimore, Maryland and away from the ever growing Washington, DC area. Part of the reason for the move (there were many reasons) was to get away from the nation’s capital. I’ve had enough of what goes on there. Washington is largely about feeding itself first then throwing out the scraps to the starving masses beyond the Beltway. That highway, by the way, was another reason I packed up the Subaru and left: I’ve wasted too many hours of my life stopped in yet another Beltway tie up.

Not everything that comes out of DC is bad, of course. The tax incentives for renewable energy, for instance, have built an entire industry. But it’s the constant battle by trade groups to get Congress to keep those incentives going that’s disheartening. Big ol’ oil gets tax breaks for decades with only occasional and failed attempts to remove them.

Another good Washington thing was raising fuel economy standards a few years ago. Better fuel economy, even if the automakers were told they had to do it, has helped U.S. car firms revive themselves. On the consumer end, better fuel economy is already leaving money in peoples’ pockets once spent on fuel. Better fuel economy has brought us electric cars and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Plans to increase fuel economy standards further will help everyone too. Of course, government mandate isn’t the only reason cars are becoming more efficient: High oil prices have certainly been a reason. Car companies can’t plan for the future if they don’t know what the cost of fuel will be.

Still despite some occasional good work, Washington is broken. It can’t do big, worldly stuff anymore other than wage war. For example, joining an international treaty to cut carbon emissions is impossible today. Sure the US government can cut carbon by supporting clean, renewable and efficient energy, but it can’t tell its own oil and coal industries to clean up or go out of business.

However, even with all that negativity about Washington, I’m bullish on America, at least when it comes to green energy. Though there may be some ups and downs, overall the green energy industry has developed a life of its own. Take solar energy for instance. When I first started this publication in 1996 a 10 kilowatt solar array was a big deal. Now there are solar power plants of 100’s of megawatts under construction or soon to be.

Next up to follow the outstanding growth of intermittent renewables is energy storage to make solar and wind 24/7 power suppliers. Again looking back to the early years of this publication, the only energy storing then was being done was some pumped storage at a few utility companies and battery back-ups for home solar systems. Now grid scale storage is in the growth stage: I expect more grid storage facilities planned and built in 2012.

Further, utilities actually seem to like renewables, particularly solar. The reason may be that its easy. It doesn’t take long to add capacity and there’s almost no public backlash. Often a megawatt class solar electric system needs little more to go ahead than a public service commission approval and a building permit. When energy storage becomes more mainstream – which is soon – utility companies will be adding systems regularly as part of overall solar or wind packages.

Speaking of solar, I fully expect solar hot water (as well as solar combined heat and power systems) to grow in popularity soon, beginning this year. The reason is that potential solar users are finally realizing energy consumption is as much about heat as it is about electricity. Solar hot water technology is a mature technology. Combining solar heat and solar electricity is still evolving.

For green energy, the tough nut to crack is the mass adoption of electric cars. The price of gasoline generally controls the sales of energy efficient cars and trucks. Right now gas is at a tolerable price so people aren’t running to showrooms to buy the most energy efficient cars they can find – electric or hybrid included. Yet automakers seem commited to continue developing and offering electric cars because it doesn’t matter everyone doesn’t buy them. There’s a big enough market of consumers who want zero emission, no petroleum vehicles for other reasons than the cost of gas. There are plenty of people who want to do their bit to tackle climate change. There are plenty of people, too, that don’t think it’s a good idea to send so much money overseas, out of the country, just so they can make a trip to work or the grocery store.

Though economic growth is slow, the US economy is clearly coming out of its slump. In part, the green energy industry – from efficient cars to solar and wind power plants – is helping to make it happen.

I believe the “news” is a leading indicator of economic growth. When there’s lots of positive news from an industry it’s a sign of growth ahead. Currently I’m swamped with postive news.