Small is the Next Big Thing | Green Energy News

August 31, 2010 – Vol.15 No.24

SMALL IS THE NEXT BIG THING.
by Bruce Mulliken, Green Energy News

Lately I’ve heard a number of economists comment that real estate sales always lead us out of recession. I find this hard to believe. Even in the height of the financial free-for-all of just a few years ago, people had to have jobs or some sort of income to borrow money to buy a house. (Whether or not they lied about their source of income is another story.)

None the less, secure jobs, with a certain employment future, lead people to buy houses, cars, and all kinds of things, and then we come out of recession. And where do those secure jobs come from? That’s the issue. There has to be a jobs driver in the economy.

Looking back over the past decades it’s plain to see these drivers. In the 1940’s it was World War II and the huge government spending program to win the war that pulled the US out of the Great Depression.

When the war ended the US fell quickly back into recession, but the Cold War was gearing up for the 1950’s creating all kinds of jobs in the military industrial complex. Further all those W.W.II vets, with some secure cash in hand, were able to buy homes. Developers taking advantage of the military defense program now known as the Interstate Highway System found cheap land away from cities on which to build cookie-cutter houses for those vets to buy.

In the 1960’s the Cold War marched on, with the Vietnam War creating employment building planes and guns. At the same time the space program – the race to the Moon – provided additional secure jobs.

In the 1970’s, with the Vietnam War and the space race gearing down, as well as problems with the supply of oil from the Mideast, new economic problems arose. But by the 1980’s military spending was up and a new technology came on the scene: the personal computer. Between government spending (with debt) and whole industries spawning around PC’s, such as programing, the 1980’s were boom time.

The 1990’s, beginning with recession, were booming again with the commercialization of the Internet, a little used Cold War technology first named DARPANet. The Internet was a fabulous job producer since it was brand new to most people and businesses. Everybody wanted to jump on the Internet bandwagon in some way, and still do. Cellular phones were another jobs driver in the economy of the 1990’s as well as the 2000’s up until the current day.

The next big thing of the 2000’s was easily accessible money which drove the housing market skyward and was thus a significant job creator. Of course, easy money is no longer and we’re where we’re at now, headed possibly toward a double dip recession.

Of course there are many interpretations of our economic history. Many would disagree with all of the above. Still there always seems to be a jobs driver in the economy – a next big thing – that pulls us out of recession. (This time we need a REALLY BIG next big thing.) The trouble is, what is it?

As with big things of the past, such as the commercialization of the Internet, the next big thing will likely emerge or evolve from something else. Now, looking around in new product introductions and what seems to be appealing to consumers, smaller but better seems to sell. There’s a trend toward downsizing while upgrading in quality, utility and technology.

Cell phones are now smart phones and do more tasks than the desktop computers of a decade ago.

Desktop computers have been replaced with laptops for tasks greater than those a smart phone can handle.

Cars are shrinking but are far more technologically sophisticated and better built than those at the turn of this century.

Television sets and computer displays, though bigger in viewing area than ever before, are somehow less obtrusive. They take up less space than the big box that was once dominant in homes and offices. Soon they will take up no more space than a picture on the wall.

The boating industry is suffering badly, but more and more people take to the water in simple lightweight kayaks.

Handheld power tools are now often battery powered with new innovations coming on the market regularly.

Right now the housing industry is being crushed by excess inventory. But according to reports, the houses that do sell are smaller.

There are many other examples of course. However there is a clear trend. Small, but innovative and of high quality is in. The businesses that have latched on to this less-offers-more trend are doing better than those who haven’t and will continue to so. The competition for the coming years will be who offer best for the least and who best capitalize on smallness.

And all of this is good for energy consumption and our emissions. Quite simply, smaller uses less energy. Doing the same work as a desktop computer, a cell phone or laptop uses less power. Smaller cars use less fuel. Some big flat screen displays are energy hogs but technology is improving there. A person can get on the water in a hand-paddled boat that uses no more energy than that from the meal before. And smaller the living area of a house the less energy will be needed to stay warm or cool.

Can small get us out of recession? Could be, depending on how innovative engineers, designers and architects get and how soon business and industry join the small is better movement.

--- Small is Beautiful, Again.