What's Next for Detroit? It's Time to Get Clever

December 21, 2008 – Vol.13 No.40

WHAT’S NEXT FOR DETROIT?
by Bruce Mulliken

No, we’re not in the 1930s. Not even close. There is something you may not know about the decade best known for the Great Depression. It was, arguably, one of the most inventive periods in our history. The electron microscope, Scotch tape, frozen food, Neoprene, the Polaroid camera, the zoom lens, the light meter, the parking meter, the radio telescope, the first working gas turbine for aviation use (the jet engine), the turboprop (a jet with a propeller), stereo records, the first drive-in movie, the tape recorder, nylon, canned beer, radar, the photocopier, strobe lighting, the ball point pen, Teflon, freeze-dried coffee and the helicopter all invented or patented (or both) in the 1930’s. An impressive list considering that all are still in use today and most of them changed the world. The jet engine gave us cheap, safe, comfortable and reliable air travel, for instance.

Invention in the 30s was the indirect result of the decade’s leanness. When people, business and industry have to scramble to survive they get creative.

Times are lean for the automakers. It’s time for them to get creative or fail; they surely don’t want that.

GM and Chrysler now have their $17.4 billion in bailout money. But if they don’t reinvent themselves by the end of March they have to send it back. Reinventing the automobile itself should be part of their survival plans. Can they do it in three months?

Who knows what thoughts are being passed around behind closed office doors in Detroit. One would hope that they’ve got some breakthrough ideas because more of the same old, same old, won’t be enough to keep them going.

Certainly in the coming weeks there will be lots of ideas thrown at the car companies. Here are some to add to the list:

--- The companies should ask the public for new ideas. The Web has been successful in gathering and fueling discussions. Open up discussions with all of us. Somewhere out there is a gem of an idea that could be the answer to all their problems;

--- GM, Ford and Chrysler should exchange general ideas on the direction vehicles should go in. If it’s electric drive, all have to agree. Electric drive, because of the need for infrastructure (though fairly minor) will need all on board to be successful. No one will help build a national infrastructure if there are not enough vehicles to use it;

--- If the electric vehicle, or the range extended electric vehicle such as the Chevy Volt, are to be the vehicle technology of the future, prove it. Specifically, prove that electric vehicles can sell for less than $20,000. (Much less, actually). If the Volt, its kin and electric offerings from Ford and Chrysler end up being expensive niche vehicles then they won’t be the cars of the future;

--- On the note above, the high cost of electric drive – right now – is the cost of the batteries, with lithium chemistries being the battery du jour. If lithium isn’t plentiful and attainable either domestically or from friendly trading partners, then its price may never drop to levels possible to achieve under $20,000 for electric cars;

--- If an infrastructure is needed to fuel or energize new vehicles, prove that it can be done commercially without government help. Washington will be a little more friendly to automakers’ needs in January. But not that friendly. Don’t rely on big checks to build infrastructure. Investment cash needs to come entirely from the private sector;

--- Don’t be afraid to talk about concerns for oil supply. On price alone, oil has become too volatile to be relied upon on to develop cars for the future. Oil is now headed towards $20 a barrel; in two years it could be 10 times that;

--- State publicly that a near term goal is to remove cars and trucks from the climate change equation. Cars and trucks need not contribute to global warming;

--- Take a few risks in automotive design. Cars and trucks might have to look entirely different than they do today to incorporate the light weight body structures and aero dynamics needed to achieve high energy economy and zero emissions.

When times are fat we tend to be lazy and uncreative. GM’s CEO Rick Wagoner has already stated that he wants the company to be around for another 100 years. There’s no reason why not. Together the car companies have to take advantage of these lean times. Be as clever as in the 1930s.