2007 Review / 2008 Outlook | Green Energy News

January 3, 2008 – Vol.12 No.41

2007 REVIEW / 2008 OUTLOOK

A shaky US economy with the continued fallout from the sub-prime lending crisis, new tensions overseas, and a presidential election all will make 2008 an interesting, if not frightening year. As if it were some perverse gift to the tenuous new year, one investor briefly pushed light sweet crude to the century mark in the first day of trading in 2008. Oil over $100 adds to the other concerns.

Some say $4 a gallon for gasoline should be expected in some markets by spring. If so, energy prices and energy independence will be the talk of the campaign trail - from both parties and, perhaps the independent Mike Bloomberg.

If $100 a barrel is a record set in 2008, last year a record of another kind of more profound concern was set.

It was the first year in recorded history that the much sought-after Northwest Passage - the short route from North Atlantic ports to Asia Pacific counterparts - opened up. Oil may continue to rise in price throughout 2008, adding to global economic woes that can be fixed. But another year of an open, ice-free sea route across the top of Canada is an indicator of long term trouble with the globe itself. Repair of the planet will be far more difficult than repair of global economies, to say the least.

Soon after the Northwest Passage opened up, scientists in the UK predicted that the Arctic ice cap would be totally gone in the summers of the next decade, about 2013, not by the middle of the century as had previously been thought.

Arctic researchers had previously been focusing on the area of the ice cap, not its thickness. But while the cap has been shrinking in area it has also been getting thinner.

In essence, in less than ten years, the planet could be without its northern ice cap for a month or two in the summer, again for the first time in written history.

So far no one is discussing how the lack of an Arctic ice cap might affect the world’s weather systems. Without its shiny white, sunlight-reflective top, the world will be traveling into uncharted waters when it comes to weather patterns and climate.

Any hope of mitigating climate change, as well as freeing ourselves from the trappings of oil and coal, will require dramatic, revolutionary and possibly disruptive changes in our sources of energy and how we use it. There are ripples of energy revolution and disruption everywhere now. Two examples from 2007 were Google’s entry into renewable energy and the roll out of a totally different kind of personal, highway-capable transportation vehicle, the Aptera.

Google didn’t have to get into renewable energy. It’s not a company that makes things like, say, General Electric. It has no experience in producing anything other than web pages and software, yet it jumped into unknown territory out of concern for the planet while not forgetting the possible rewards later on. In other words Google thought it was the right thing to do, and has the money to invest in the future.

Aptera is an example of the extreme change that vehicles might have to undertake in order make huge cuts in greenhouse gases. To achieve super-high energy economy, cars will have to be slick and light weight while not being particularly small and certainly not unsafe. While the US government is now mandating a minor fuel economy increase to 35 miles per gallon by 2020 (which won’t save the planet) Aptera is saying we can get nearly 10 times that as soon as late this year or early next.

The government too is saying we need more ethanol. But with current technology we could never be energy independent on ethanol alone unless we make vehicles far more efficient too. The three-wheeled, airplane-like Aptera is the model of efficiency.

In 2008 for the sake of the planet, for the sake of the world’s economies, and for the eventual profits, green energy technology companies will continue to push forward. And there’ll be new entrants.

Already, as I write this in 2008, Hamilton Sundstrand, an aerospace company with roots more than 100 years old (and a subsidiary of United Technologies), and US Renewables Group announced an agreement to commercialize a concentrated solar power tower technology and corresponding molten salt storage system developed by Rocketdyne, another United Technologies company. The new entity will be known as SolarReserve for its ability to store solar energy for later use.

The technology will enable utility-scale solar power generation. One installation will be capable of producing up to 500 megawatts of peak power. That’s one installation about the size of a medium-sized coal power plant , or one very large wind farm.

This is proven technology. It works.

With new companies as well as established ones entering the arena there’s a bright future for green energy. Everything from insulation products to light bulbs to energy storage systems and a host of other technologies will be included. Once we get past 2008, and possibly 2009, the industry should well be on its way as the next big thing.

Links:

Aptera
http://www.aptera.com

Hamilton Sundstrand
http://www.hamiltonsundstrandcorp.com

US Renewables Group
http://www.usregroup.com

US Department of Energy: Solar Tower Power
http://www.energylan.sandia.gov/sunlab/PDFs/solar_tower.pdf