Summertime Climate Change: Hotter Than A Match Head

August 9, 2007 – Vol.12 No. 20

SUMMERTIME CLIMATE CHANGE:
HOTTER THAN A MATCH HEAD.

“Hot town, summer in the city
Back of my neck getting dirty and gritty
Been down, isn't it a pity
Doesn't seem to be a shadow in the city

All around, people looking half dead
Walking on the sidewalk, hotter than a match head

But at night it's a different world
Go out and find a girl
Come-on come-on and dance all night
Despite the heat it'll be all right”

In 1966 when the Lovin’ Spoonful sang about the prospects for cool, nighttime romance in “Summer in the City” they couldn’t have known that, conversely, their words could eventually come true.

“And babe, don't you know it's a pity
That the days can't be like the nights
In the summer, in the city
In the summer, in the city”

According to the final draft of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) nights in the city (and elsewhere) aren’t as cool as they used to be. Daily minimum (nighttime) temperatures have warmed more than daily maximum (daytime) temperatures. The nights WILL be like the days in the summer, in the city. Despite the heat it won’t be all right.

The report, which covers impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, highlights an array of potential adaptation responses for various regions and sectors across the world.

In North America alone, with very high confidence, Working Group II finds that:

--- North America has already experienced locally severe economic damage, plus substantial ecosystem, social and cultural disruption from recent weather-related extremes, including hurricanes, other severe storms, floods, droughts, heat waves and wildfires over the past several decades.

--- North America has the ability to adapt but actual practices have not always protected people and property from adverse impacts of climate variability and extreme weather events. Especially vulnerable groups include indigenous peoples and those who are socially or economically disadvantaged.

Traditions and institutions in North America have encouraged a decentralized response framework where adaptation tends to be reactive, unevenly distributed, and focused on coping with rather than preventing problems. ‘Mainstreaming’ climate change issues into decision making is a key prerequisite for sustainability.

--- Sea level is rising along much of the coast, and the rate of change will increase in the future, exacerbating the impacts of progressive inundation, storm-surge flooding and shoreline erosion. Storm impacts are likely to be more severe, especially along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Salt marshes, other coastal habitats, and dependent species are threatened by sea-level rise, fixed structures blocking landward migration, and changes in vegetation. Population growth and the rising value of infrastructure in coastal areas increases vulnerability to climate variability and future climate change. Current adaptation is uneven and readiness for increased exposure is low.

--- Climate change impacts on infrastructure and human health and safety in urban centers will be compounded by aging infrastructure, maladapted urban form and building stock, urban heat islands, air pollution, population growth and an aging population.

--- Climate change will constrain North America’s over-allocated water resources, increasing competition among agricultural, municipal, industrial and ecological uses.

Rising temperatures will diminish snowpack and increase evaporation, affecting seasonal availability of water. Higher demand from economic development, agriculture and population growth will further limit surface and groundwater availability. In the Great Lakes and major river systems, lower levels are likely to exacerbate challenges relating to water quality, navigation, recreation, hydropower generation, water transfers and bi-national relationships.

--- Disturbances such as wildfire and insect outbreaks are increasing and are likely to intensify in a warmer future with drier soils and longer growing seasons.

Although recent climate trends have increased vegetation growth, continuing increases in disturbances are likely to limit carbon storage, facilitate invasive species, and disrupt ecosystem services. Warmer summer temperatures are expected to extend the annual window of high fire ignition risk by 10-30%, and could result in increased area burned of 74-118% in Canada by 2100. Over the 21st century, pressure for species to shift north and to higher elevations will fundamentally rearrange North American ecosystems.

--- Without increased investments in countermeasures, hot temperatures and extreme weather are likely to cause increased adverse health impacts from heat-related mortality, pollution, storm-related fatalities and injuries, and infectious diseases.

Cities that currently experience heat waves are expected to experience an increase in intensity and duration of these events by the end of the century, with potential for adverse health effects.

“Hotter than a match head” that’s this summer in much of North America. “Cool town, evening in the city” might be a thing of the past.

Links:

The Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
http://www.ipcc-wg2.org

The Lovin’ Spoonful performing “Summer in the City”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91uLJ00B1h4