Energy Crunch On the Way? | Green Energy News

August 2, 2007 – Vol.12 No.19

ENERGY CRUNCH ON THE WAY?

--- The Russians planted a titanium flag on the seabed beneath the North Pole. (Not because they care about the icy waters above, but because they’re trying to stake a claim on the oil, natural gas and other mineral reserves thought to be under the seabed.)

--- The US Congress is still undecided on increasing corporate average fuel economy for cars and light trucks. The Senate is for it. The House has yet to vote, and may not. (Washington seems bent on letting US dependance on imported oil increase and allowing greenhouse gases attributed vehicles to skyrocket.)

--- Combined, US carmakers now sell fewer than half the cars sold in the nation. (High gas prices have been helping out foreign manufacturers who have little difficulty building high fuel economy cars, like hydrids and diesels - voluntarily.)

--- Oil prices have reached a new record high. (Hitting $ 78.77 before retreating a few pennies.)

--- The war to protect oil supplies in the Middle East continues, of course. (The Iraqi government continues to fall apart. There’s little chance that Sunnis, Shias and Kurds will kiss and make up any time soon, let alone warm up to the Americans.)

--- According to Wikipedia, China may become a world leader in lithium for lithium-ion batteries in the coming years. The country has potential capacity of up to 45,000 tons per year from projects in Qinghai province and Tibet. (Seeing the folly of becoming beholden to others for its energy resources, the world’s most populous nation may be on track to be the world’s largest producer of electric vehicles, as well as renewable energies in general.)

(China can switch to super energy efficient electric vehicles by decree. It’s government isn’t under the palm of special and corporate interests. Yet, anyway.)

On July 9, 2007 the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a report saying that within the next five years the world will face an oil supply crunch. The reasons? Global demand for oil will surpass the 2 percent per year growth rate to reach 2.2 percent per annum. (A point-2 percent increase in the growth rate is a big deal when global consumption is considered.)

The increase in the rate of growth for oil demand is attributed to the roaring use of oil in Asia and the Middle East.

Further, to add an infectious bite to the crunch, the IEA feels that non-OPEC oil has reached a plateau. That is, production is trundling along at a level output without increasing. (Geographically, plateaus end in a cliff. Oil production could fall off a cliff as well.)

OPEC oil, too, is expected to decline after 2009 at a time when the world will become increasingly reliant on oil from the cartel nations.

An equally dire report - now in its draft stage - is being prepared by the National Petroleum Council (NPC) under the leadership of former ExxonMobil chief executive Lee R. Raymond.

That report “Facing the hard truths about energy " looks at demand growth for energy decades into the future and how the US can cope while keeping its energy-intensive economy thriving.

The report makes five recommendations:

--- Moderate demand growth by increasing efficiency in every sector;

--- Expand and diversify energy production by tapping into all available economically viable energy sources: coal, nuclear, renewables, and unconventional oil and natural gas;

--- Integrate energy into all other related policy areas such as trade, economic, environmental, security and foreign policy;

--- Reduce emissions of global warming gases and include the establishment of a transparent, predictable, economy-wide cost for CO2 as well as a regulatory framework for carbon sequestration and storage;

--- Boost R&D technological efforts to create long-term opportunities in energy.

In large part the US still sits on its hands on energy. Many states are concerned and are acting, but Washington, as well as US carmakers, keeps hoping the 1990’s - the pre 9-11, pre-Iraq years with their cheaper-than-bottled-water gasoline - will return.

I don’t think so. When “Facing the hard truths about energy” comes out lawmakers and business leaders should listen, and act.