Mitigating Global Warming: Not So Hard, But Act Now

May 5, 2007 – Vol.12 No.6

MITIGATING GLOBAL WARMING: NOT SO HARD, BUT ACT NOW.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published its third report in its Climate Change 2007 series this year on the state of global warming: Working Group III Report: Mitigation of Climate Change. In brief it says that if we work really hard now the worst effects of global warming can be avoided. But now is now. There can be no waiting. Time is not on our side.

The report looks at cost scenarios to keep greenhouse gas concentrations at various levels ranging from causing little climate change (like we’re already seeing) to levels that would cause significant change (like we don’t want to see because it may not be survivable.) As you could expect, to do the least - but see levels of emissions that would cause significant change - would cost the least. Conversely, the cost of keeping emissions low (and surviving) is the highest.

Cost, by the way, as determined by economists, is not really in dollars and cents but in economic growth forgone in terms of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and projected well into the future. Since GDP growth is largely an educated guess based on economic modeling (not unlike climate modeling, lots of variables) the cost of keeping a lid on greenhouse gases is also just an educated guess.

But most importantly the report includes thoughts on mitigation technologies and practices - things consumers, business and policy makers need to consider before taking action and making decisions.

Most of the key mitigation technologies and practices evolve around energy. The report breaks them down into sector by what’s available now and what’s expected to be available before 2030, in the next 23 years.

Available now are of course various renewable energies (solar, wind, etc.), combined heat and power, general energy efficiency improvements for home, transportation and industry (such as efficient lighting, heating, cooling, vehicle technologies, and industry processes) as well as nuclear power, mass transit, non-motorized transit (bikes, walking) and methane capture.

All the usual stuff.

Then as 2030 grows nearer the report suggests a few more (by sector):

Energy Supply: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) for gas, biomass and coal-fired power generation; advanced nuclear power, and advanced renewable energies such as tidal and wave energy, concentrating solar and advanced solar photovoltaics.

Transport: Second generation biofuels (presumably such as cellulosic ethanol), higher efficiency aircraft, advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries. (No mention of hydrogen.)

Buildings: Intelligent meters (demand response meters) that better control energy consumption as well as building integrated solar energy.

Industry: Carbon Capture and Storage for cement, ammonia and iron manufacture and the use of inert electrodes in aluminum manufacture (instead of carbon graphite ones)

Interestingly with the exception of a few technologies most of the suggestions are well underway from a research and development standpoint. Only Carbon Capture and Storage (and possibly those inert electrodes for aluminum manufacture) is in the early stages of R&D. (Though CCS is a big one, since it includes trapping emissions from the the world’s most popular energy source, coal)

So all of this seems doable and saving the planet will cost some money. Isn’t it worth it?

Visit the IPCC at http://www.ipcc.ch/