Climate Change: A Threat to Global Security

April 15, 2007 – Vol.12 No.4

CLIMATE CHANGE: A THREAT TO GLOBAL SECURITY.

Massive migrations. Increased border tensions. Greater demands for rescue and evacuation efforts. Conflicts over essential resources - including food and water.

Those are only a few of the concerns raised in a new report on the threats posed by climate change compiled under the direction of eleven retired four-star and three-star admirals and generals.

Immigration from Africa and the Middle East may cause European nations to close and protect their borders.

Shortages of food, drinking water and farmland in Africa will strain a continent that’s already the source of 30-percent of the world’s refugees.

Tension over water resources in the Middle East will increase volatility in a region now in conflict.

Rising sea levels, increased hurricane activity, the loss of glaciers as a source of water supply will increase immigration in Latin America.

Of the almost 4 billion people in Asia, nearly 40 percent - those living within 45 miles of the oceans - could be impacted by rising sea levels. Shortages of farmland and drinking water will cause additional stress as will the threat of infectious diseases.

According to the report, the US military will encounter its own set of challenges as well

An ice-free Arctic could require new ships and a new set of naval operations in the region.

Rising sea levels could threaten coastal bases at home and abroad.

Increasing storm activity could hamper the military's ability to perform routine maintenance or carry out regular exercises.

Changing ocean salinity could require technical changes in sonar and submarine systems.

Drought conditions could require new logistical plans and equipment for moving water to US troops in war zones.

The need for new kinds of humanitarian operations could necessitate new training to address these different missions.

The report compiled and researched by the CNA Corporation, under the direction of the Military Advisory Board (those retired generals and admirals) was not to discuss the science of climate change, but to say that evidence suggests that growing carbon emissions are becoming a problem: a threat to international security.

The report includes some recommendations. Climate change should be included in national security and defense policy. The US should commit to a stronger international role to stabilize climate change. The US should commit to global partnerships that help less developed nations better manage climate impacts, The US military should accelerate the adoption of business practices and technologies that improve US combat power through energy efficiency. The military should review the potential impact of climate change over the next 30-40 years related to its own facilities worldwide.

CNA Corporation is a nonprofit research and analysis organization.

The full report, “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change,” will be available on the CNA website on Monday, April 16, 2007 at http://www.cna.org/