Evolution, No, Revolution Needed in the Auto Industry

March 2, 2007 – Vol.11 No.49

EVOLUTION, NO, REVOLUTION NEEDED IN THE AUTO INDUSTRY.

The oil war in Iraq, lakes forming under Antarctic glaciers, a steadily sinking US auto industry, a crash in global stock markets and a lackluster US economy: All the worries are there for a major global meltdown.

But all those frightening cards could be turned upside down - the brighter side up - too. Like the Internet boom of the 1990’s, a new revolutionary, radical change in the auto industry could turn things around, give investors something to cheer about.

A dramatic move away from Mideast oil would drop oil prices and cause concern in those oil-run governments, but at the same time open an opportunity to create jobs (which they need badly) and ensure longer term economic health.

Most everyone is on board now on climate change: something has to be done. The recent news of lakes under Antarctic glaciers (which add lubrication to the glacier above) could bring concerns that the southern pole is melting as fast as the northern one. An Antarctic meltdown would bring significant sea level rise. Say goodbye to Miami, New York City, London, to name a few.

While cars and trucks aren’t the only problem, they certainly are the most visible and difficult greenhouse gas emitting technology to fix.

As much as the US auto industry lags behind the rest of the world, its struggle to survive might create a willingness to change: Build greener cars than the world has ever seen. GM, in particular, may already be getting this message.

The most radical change in the auto industry might be at the core of vehicles themselves: car and truck bodies. It might be time for the more-than-century-old heavy steel box to go. Consider this: For every ten percent reduction in weight there’s a seven percent or more improvement in fuel economy.

Aluminum is one possibility. (It’s already becoming more and more popular as a way to build vehicles. It recycles nicely too.) But, Germany’s Bayer Material Science (an arm of the aspirin company) thinks all-plastic cars are the way to go.

To prove its point the company has worked with Rinspeed of Switzerland to build the eXasis, a two-seat, ethanol-fueled, all-plastic concept car.

Though the companies admit eXasis will never go into production, the car does show how strong, weight-saving plastics can be used to build cars that are both fuel efficient and perform admirably.

Weighing only 1700 pounds, eXasis has 0-60 times of under 5 seconds yet gets the gasoline equivalent of over 50 miles to the gallon with its two-cylinder, 150 horsepower engine. (Actual consumption of E85 is 36 miles per gallon.)

Rinspeed and Bayer chose bioethanol not only because of its lower overall carbon dioxide footprint, according to the companies, but because the fuel works well with high performance engines. E85 has a higher octane rating than gasoline, thus allows for higher compression engines for more power output.

(If eXasis gets 50 plus miles per gallon on E85 ethanol consider what kind of fuel economy a plug-in hybrid eXasis would get.)

And the link to the oil-producing countries, their economic health and jobs? Building things out of plastic is a better use of a declining resource (oil) than burning it for fuel. Already a world leader in petrochemicals is Saudi Arabia. The Saudis, and others including Venezuela, need to be making end products - car bodies for instance - out of their oil.

Visit Rinspeed at http://www.rinspeed.com/ Bayer Materials Science at http://www.bayermaterialscience.com/