Exploding Middle East to Solve Climate Crisis?

July 30, 2006 – Vol.11 No.19

EXPLODING MIDDLE EAST TO SOLVE CLIMATE CRISIS?

As awful and stomach-turning as it may sound, the wars in Israel, Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan may be the beginning of the end of the world’s over-reliance on oil as a transportation fuel and thus eliminate a major contributor of greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the planet.

It has always been hoped that a switch to energy beyond oil would be a slow, passive one: Consumers, industry, and political leaders would see the light, as it were, and find ways to move away from oil at a steady, measured pace that would hurt no one.

Now with the growing violence in the region the end of oil as a source of affordable fuel may come abruptly. Iran could sink a few tankers in the Persian Gulf. Saudi oil fields could be attacked. A regional oil embargo against the west as in the 1970’s could be repeated.

While Russia, Venezuela, and others could still supply considerable oil to world markets, there would be shortages and oil (thus gasoline) would be very expensive.

If the high oil prices lasted long enough - more than a few months - there would be mad rush to alternatives, with renewable fuels the most likely candidates. As consumers, businesses and industry adapted they would, by default, eliminate or at least neutralize carbon emissions in a step that would go a long way to tackling global warming.

Already, the US economy has entered a slowdown caused in part by the high cost of gasoline. (The lag between the beginning of $3.00 or so gasoline in the fall of 2005 and the economic slow down today might be due, in part, to people putting gasoline fill ups on credit cards. Eventually credit card accounts get filled up themselves.)

Fortunately, many in business - small and large - fully understand the implications of a world without cheap oil and a world of changing climate: Their businesses may suffer. That’s not a good thing.

Fortunately too, political leaders at the state and local level understand the same implications and are willing to make the effort to move away from over-reliance on oil as well as cut greenhouse gas emissions. In the US, Northeast and West coast states are banding together to tackle climate change and energy, for instance.

But there are the unfortunate ones, as well. who don’t seem to understand. Many of these unfortunates are political leaders operating out of Washington, DC. They’ll get it eventually. Hopefully soon.

But beyond Washington there is optimism and leadership from people that, at the very at least, easily get their names and their projects in the news. There’s Al Gore, of course, with his movie An Inconvenient Truth. There are Bill Clinton, Tony Blair and Arnold Schwarzenegger as well.

Al Gore’s film is number 12 in the current top twenty films in the US after 9 weeks in theaters. With box office receipts to date of $19 million, it’s the highest earning documentary film. The movie sends a strong message: There’s a big problem out there that needs to be fixed. Let’s do it.

California Governor Schwarzenegger and UK Prime Minister Tony Blair

signed a cooperative agreement this week to share the best practices on emission trading and collaborate on technologies for energy efficiency, green homes and green transportation.

In addition to owning a Hummer or two, Schwarzenegger seems to like and appreciate green vehicles. He made himself present, with many smiles, at the recent debut of the all-electric Tesla sports car.

And Tony Blair? His reputation as a lap dog for George Bush seems only on Middle East issues. The rest of the time he’s his own man. He has said that climate change and global warming are bigger threats to mankind than terrorism.

Bill Clinton has created the Clinton Climate Initiative, an international consortium of large cities that together will be able to negotiate for cheaper energy-efficient products as well as share ideas on cutting greenhouse gas pollution.

Twenty-two of the world’s largest cities have already joined. A total of 40 are targeted for membership. While membership in the Initiative is limited to cities of 3 million or more, smaller cites will be able to buy technologies at the negotiated rates. (Imagine 40 cities asking a major vehicle maker for the best price on fleets of hybrid transit buses. There’d be a substantial discount for thousands of buses.)

Violence is not the way to get global warming under control and create energy independence, but depending on actions taken by warring entities and supporters, violence may, by default, lead to doing both.