Aletta Forms in E. Pacific: More Storms Not Global Warming

May 21, 2006 – Vol.11 No.9

ALETTA FORMS IN E. PACIFIC; MORE STORMS NOT GLOBAL WARMING.

Forecasters at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting a high likelihood of an above-average 2006 Atlantic hurricane season with 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes.

Last year the preseason prediction was for 12 to 15 named storms, 7- 9 hurricanes and 3 - 5 major hurricanes. At final count (in a season that lingered into January 2006) there were 28 named storms.

Forecasters say they don’t expect 2005 to be repeat of 2006 because sea surface temperatures in late May aren’t quite as warm as they were at this time last year. Still, they say it’s too early to consider other factors that help hurricanes form and they’ll let us know before the really active part of the hurricane season begins in August.

Yet as this article is being written the first tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific has been born. Aletta is lingering off the west coast of Mexico and forecasters think she will strengthen. The word hurricane isn’t used however.

NOAA forecasters still say the planet is in a multi-decadal cycle for an increased number of hurricanes. Higher than normal sea surface temperatures - which they don’t attribute to global warming, man-induced or otherwise - are included in their long-term predictors for an above average number of hurricanes in the Atlantic for another decade or two. Visit the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/