Hybrid Sales Rise and Could Climb Higher

April 30, 2006 – Vol.11 No.6

HYBRID SALES RISE AND COULD CLIMB HIGHER.

According to automotive information company R.L. Polk, 199,148 new hybrid passenger vehicles were purchased in 2005 in the US, a 139 percent increase over 2004.

Yet overall, sales of hybrids represented only slightly over 1.2 percent of the 16 million new vehicles sold in the US in 2005.

Most of the sales were for Toyota’s Prius with over 100,000 sold amounting to a 52 percent market share. Honda’s Civic Hybrid was in second place with more than 25,000 sold and a better than 12 percent market share. The Civic Hybrid’s market share could improve in 2006 with the introduction of the improved second generation car.

Previous year-over-year sales, 2004-over-2003, showed an 80 percent increase in sales. Clearly hybrid sales are on an upswing and the trend may continue:

--- More new hybrids are coming on the market, such as Toyota’s Camry Hybrid, at a time when gasoline prices are remaining uncomfortably high for US drivers.

--- Even higher gas prices may occur during a predicted at-least-as-busy-as-last-year hurricane season soon to begin. Gulf of Mexico oil production and refining has yet to recover fully from 2005, and Gulf waters are already heating up ready to energize tropical cyclones that drift into the area.

--- The real war in Iraq continues as does the war of words with Iran. Both will keep upward pressure on oil prices.

A few years from now a further strengthening of hybrid sales may come when the first manufacturer promises better than 100 miles per gallon with plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). But at this time no vehicle manufacturer has announced plans to offer a PHEV to consumers.

And, if what flywheel maker AFS Trinity says is true, 100 miles per gallon may seem low compared with 250 miles per gallon that might be possible with the company’s Extreme Hybrid (tm) or XH (tm) technology for which the company has recently filed a patent application.

The company claims that an XH drive in a passenger car would get 250 miles per gallon and perform similarly. An SUV would get 150 miles per gallon or so.

XH takes a PHEV a step further by adding a bank of ultracapacitors to the mix of on-board energy saving technologies. An XH would have an internal combustion engine, an electric drive motor, a lithium-ion battery back, the bank of ultracapacitors and supporting electronics.

Like PHEVs already in testing, the XH would be recharged from the power grid (preferably at night) and be able drive the first 40 miles each day on battery power alone. The bank of ultracapacitors would recapture all the energy of braking, unlike batteries which recapture only small percentage of that lost energy. The ultracapacitors are the main factor that drives the XH fuel economy into the stratosphere.

The company also says that at $3 per gallon the additional expense of XH technologies would be recouped quickly and drivers would begin to save money: $11,000 over five years, they say.

AFS Trinity and automotive supplier Ricardo have signed a Technology Partnership Agreement to develop the XH technology. With sufficient funding, the companies expect to have demonstration vehicles available for fleets in two years and licenses available for mass production in three years.

Most of the components needed to build an XH are off the shelf, commercially available parts. Integrating them with the correct computer controls will be the job for AFS and Ricardo.

Visit R.L. Polk at http://usa.polk.com/, AFS Trinity at http://www.afstrinity.com/ and Ricardo at http://www.ricardo.com/