Into the Crystal Ball - 25 Years Ahead

December 11, 2005 – Vol.10 No.38

INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL - 25 YEARS AHEAD.

Unless there’s some cataclysmic event - an asteroid smashing into the planet, a sudden melting of Greenland and Antarctica - ExxonMobil is probably correct when it says that the demand for energy from all sources should be 60 percent higher in 2030 than it is now.

Another 2 billion people are expected by then for a total of over 8 billion. Ninety percent of those newcomers will be in what’s now considered the developing world. All of those people will need to stay warm, or cool. Food will need to be farmed and cooked. Industries will need energy to operate. Travel, particularly by car, will escalate.

ExxonMobil, primarily in the fossil transportation fuels business, believes that the supply of oil will be enough to meet demand, but with one rather large caveat: Oil from OPEC will become increasingly important.

By 2030 OPEC will need to supply the world with 47 million barrels per day (MBD) of crude oil, up from about 30 MBD today.

But here’s the rub - ExxonMobil doesn’t discuss rubs - no one is really sure how much oil OPEC actually has. Other than documentation that is available from Iraq (because of the U.S. presence there), data that proves that OPEC has the reserves it says it has is rather flimsy. OPEC’s major member Saudi Arabia, for instance, simply doesn’t give out that information nor does it allow for external, independent audits of its oil fields.

ExxonMobil, to its credit, shows the gap in a graphic way, if not in the text of the report. Under the heading Worldwide Liquids Demand the graph shows that oil from non-OPEC sources begins to taper off around 2015 (thus it has peaked at that time) and then OPEC must fill in the remaining, increasing demand.

But can it? That question not only needs to be asked, but it needs to be proven.

ExxonMobil also gives energy efficiency and renewables a boost. Biofuels are expected to grow as are solar and wind energy. The percentage of hybrids and diesels in the world’s vehicle fleet will grow as well. And hydrogen? Not on the map.

Read The Outlook for Energy - A View to 2030 at http://www.exxonmobil.com/ .