New Warnings And More Speak Out

January 23, 2005 – Vol.9 No.44

NEW WARNINGS, AND MORE SPEAK OUT.

The more data that’s analyzed the more frightening the scenarios for global warming and climate change become.

--- A report from the International Climate Change Task Force is adamant: It is vital that global average temperatures are not allowed to rise more than 3.6 F (2 C) above preindustrial levels. Above that, risks to human societies and ecosystems grow as does the possibility of accelerated, or runaway, climate change.

A tipping point of climate change could eventually cause a melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets; that could cause sea levels to rise over 10 meters in the space of a few centuries.

In terms of carbon dioxide concentrations that tipping point might be at 400 parts per million (ppm). Unfortunately, CO2 emissions are now at 380 ppm and rising at 2 ppm per year. Simple math puts the 400 ppm acceleration point in 10 years.

For the International Climate Change Taskforce report visit the Institute for Public Policy Research at http://www.ippr.org/

--- The first run of the world’s largest climate prediction computer model had some extraordinary results: Global average temperature could rise as high as 19.8 F (11 C), or, at the low end, 3.6 F (2 C).

Results are from Climateprediction.net that relied on 95,000 people from 150 countries who voluntarily ran the simulation model on their home or office computers. Each user downloaded a distinct version of the model with different data points that determined a large number of end results. The model ran in the background while computer users were at other tasks.

Together, the equivalent of more than 8000 years of computer time was donated. Visit Climateprediction.net at http://www.climateprediction.net/ .

--- A new study completed for the World Wildlife Federation (WWF) shows that world temperatures could begin to surge in just 20 years if action isn’t taken soon.

The report, Evidence and Implications of Dangerous Climate Change in the Arctic, shows global average temperatures rising by 3.6 Fahrenheit (2.0 Celsius) between 2026 and 2060.

Temperature rise would be uneven, as it is now, with the Arctic rising the most, 5.8 - 10.4 F (3.2 - 6.6 C). Extreme temperature rise in that region would cause the summer polar ice cap to disappear completely, destroying the habitat for polar bears and driving them to extinction in the wild. Other wildlife would be affected as would the Inuit who rely on hunting as a way of life.

The meltdown of the Arctic could also cause runaway global warming. The melting of permafrost could cause the release of methane gases now locked in the frozen tundra. Methane is a more potent greenhouse gas - a better insulator - than carbon dioxide.

Visit the WWF Arctic Programme at http://www.panda.org/about_wwf/where_we_work/arctic/index.cfm

Fortunately, in the face of dire scenarios some movers and shakers are beginning to speak out.

--- The chairman of Royal Dutch/Shell Group, Ron Oxburgh said that global warming caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels (Shell’s products) is disastrous for the planet.

Upon retirement this summer Oxburgh plans to join the other side and would like to become a chairman of climate-change nonprofit to campaign for more responsible use of hydrocarbons.

He thinks that only government involvement, such as tax policy and regulation, along with new energy technologies such as renewables, can solve the problem.

Oxburgh and his family ride bicycles as much as possible, use the family car rarely and have given up air travel for vacations.

--- Seizing on President Bush’s inaugural words which called for unification in the world to fight terrorism, British Prime Minister Tony Blair called on the U.S. to consider European (and other’s) concerns.

“If America wants the rest of the world to be part of the agenda it has set, it must be part of their agenda too.”

Climate change is a bigger concern to the U.K., and Europe in general, than terrorism. Blair has noted this on a number of occasions.

--- U.S. Senators Jim Jeffords (Vermont, Ind.), Susan Collins (Maine, Rep.) and Joseph Lieberman (Connecticut, Dem) want cuts in carbon dioxide included in the Clear Skies legislation now in committee in the Senate. Those opposing say the inclusion of cuts in global warming emissions would kill the bill.

Clear Skies calls for a cap and trade system for pollutants such as nitrogen oxides sulfur dioxide and mercury.

Overall, even if dramatic action is taken to cut or sequester greenhouse gas emissions at current levels the planet is still expected to warm and climates to change.

The BBC reports that the U.K. government is developing a strategy on how to adapt to eventual climate change. The report is expected in about a year.