Big Auto Deal On Hybrids, And Commentary

December 12, 2004 – Vol.9 No.38

BIG AUTO DEAL ON HYBRIDS, AND COMMENTARY.

General Motors and DaimlerChrysler announced this week that they would team up to develop hybrid drive systems. Great news!

But first, let’s have a reality check on hybrid technology.

Relatively low mass and slick aerodynamics - not just its hybrid electric drive system and undersized combustion engine - allows Honda’s Insight or Toyota’s Prius to achieve outstanding fuel economy. Where a hybrid drive will certainly make any vehicle get better mileage, only total vehicle redesign and rethinking will allow a doubling, or more, of fuel economy in a class of vehicle without sacrificing safety, comfort and performance.

A hybrid system installed in a sleek, light car will improve fuel economy that would probably have been pretty good without it. A hybrid system in a heavy, boxy vehicle will improve fuel economy, but not in great leaps. (Ford’s Escape Hybrid is more fuel efficient than the six-cylinder model it’s compared to, but not dramatically so.)

There’s still more sobering news. Hybrids will always be more expensive than conventional vehicles, by quite a bit. Hybrids have two additional major components not found in conventional vehicles: a large and powerful battery pack and electric drive/assist motor. (There’s other stuff too, but not as serious or expensive.) Those two parts alone will always add a few thousand dollars to the price tag of a hybrid car. Mass production won’t bring costs down.

The determination to purchase a hybrid will always be based on altruism and economics. Reducing fuel consumption will reduce dependence on imported oil while helping the environment. That’s good for all of us. If fuel costs creep higher over time, the sooner the extra cost of the hybrid technology will be paid off. That’s good for each of us.

Back to the really good news. Hybrids are obviously catching on. The technology is likely to stay and improve. And, once the technology is commonplace, it can be transplanted into specialized, ultralight vehicles for the incredible fuel economy that is really needed on an individual and global scale.

(Expect some small custom car builders to stuff a hybrid drive from Toyota, Honda, etc. into a carbon-fiber, wind-tunnel-tested vehicle to see just how high fuel economy can get.)

The first vehicles from the GM/DaimlerChrysler technology are expected on showroom floors by the 2007 model year. The dual mode hybrid system developed by GM will apparently be similar to that used in hybrid transit buses the company has already built.

The hybrid drive is expected to first be deployed in large SUVs. The Mercedes Benz division of DaimlerChrysler may use the technology in rear-wheel drive luxury cars. The companies are planning to license their technology to others.

GM considers hybrids a bridge technology leading to fuel cell vehicles. Those vehicles, if and when they come into the marketplace, will be hybrids as well with large battery packs (or ultracapacitor packs) to store captured energy from braking and reduce the size of the fuel cell stack. Visit GM at http://www.gm.com/ (click News) .