The Energy Situation 2030 | Green Energy News

October 24, 2004 – Vol.9 No.31

THE ENERGY SITUATION 2030.

Before you read the Executive Summary for the World Energy Outlook 2004 from the International Energy Agency (IEA), consider the following paragraph from it. (And keep it in the back of your mind.)

--- The International Energy Agency calls on all parties to work together to devise and implement a universally-recognized, transparent, consistent and comprehensive data-reporting system for oil and gas reserves. The reliability of reserves data reported by oil companies has been called into severe question. Doubts about the accuracy of reserves estimates - an issue highlighted in this Outlook - could undermine investor confidence and slow investment. Governments should be concerned about reserves-data problems, since the long term security of energy supplies depends on the timely development of oil and gas reserves. The future availability and affordability of hydrocarbons affect decisions about what new policies and measures governments ought to adopt now to develop alternative sources of energy and to save energy. ---

(In other words the IEA has become skeptical about the information it receives, but is forced to write a report based on information it seems to be losing faith in. The IEA doesn’t have the capacity to do well-head-by-well-head audits of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies.)

For the first time in its annual energy resource review the IEA has included two scenarios.

The first is the Reference Scenario which looks at the world as it is with fossil fuels as the dominating source of energy. A second scenario - the World Alternative Policy Scenario - considers energy policy that should or could be developed that would lead to increased energy efficiency, cleaner energy technologies and more renewable energy.

(One gets the feeling that the IEA really wishes nations of the world would move to the Alternative Scenario.)

In the Outlook, the IEA notes that:

--- Overall energy consumption will be 60 percent higher in 2030 than it is now. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the picture. New energy demand will be mostly in developing countries - more and more cars, homes and businesses needing energy.

--- Unfortunately, climate destabilizing greenhouse gases (they use that term) will increase at an even faster rate than energy consumption, 60 percent higher than today before 2030 - 25 years from now.

--- Oil won’t peak before 2030. That is, if the necessary investments are made for new discoveries, production and transportation. (Again, think back to that paragraph.)

--- The investment for all energy resources to meet growing demand will need to be $16 trillion (Yes, that’s trillion) between now and 2030.

--- Interest in investment may be dampened by geopolitical situations. Most of the oil and gas we’ll need will come from the Middle East and Russia. Banks, others, won’t invest if nations are in upheaval.

--- In the Alternative Scenario the same level of investment would be needed in renewables and energy efficiency to meet that same level of energy demand. (There would however be obvious benefits to stepping back, somewhat, from from fossil fuels - environment, climate, energy security to name some.)

--- Environmental costs should be included in energy costs.

--- Energy poverty needs to be addressed. Access to energy - the ability to cook a meal, pump water, read a book at night - could bring many people out of poverty.

The report, which is aptly titled Energy Security in a Dangerous World, also seems to hope that some breakthrough technology - some disruptive technology - will come along that will quickly, easily, and economically lead the world out of the mess it’s now in. (I agree.)

A least in the Summary, hydrogen, and the possibility of a hydrogen economy, are not addressed. For the Summary or the full paid publication visit the IEA at http://www.iea.org/