Charley, Francis, Ivan | Green Energy News

August 29, 2004 – Vol.9 No.23

CHARLEY, FRANCES, IVAN

Like an X marking the spot, on August 13 Hurricane Charley crossed the state of Florida from lower left to upper right. As this is being written massive Hurricane Frances is moving ever so slowly in a mirror image across that state.

(Next in line for Florida may be Hurricane Ivan, but it’s too far out in the Atlantic right now to know exactly where it’s going. However it is headed in that general direction .)

A frightening thought too: The Atlantic hurricane season has yet to reach its historical peak - September 10.

While according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) the number of strong hurricanes was on the increase in the 1995 -2003 period (with two lower than normal years in between because of El Nino conditions), the agency does not claim that the rise in the number of large and powerful storms is a result of global warming.

They do however say that an abnormal rise in sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic along with an ongoing active Atlantic multi-decadal signal are the causes of the increase in storms. The multi-decadal signal itself is based on sea-surface temperatures and changes in wind patterns near and over the Atlantic. It may last for, well, decades.

It’s always interesting to analyze numbers and the sources of data. Regarding hurricane activity, NOAA says that accurate records for the Atlantic are thought to have begun around 1944, presumably with the advent of airplanes sturdy enough to fly through them, generally better international information sharing, then computer record keeping and finally satellites beginning the 1960’s.

Unfortunately, with no detailed and accurate information on hurricane activity prior to the 1940’s, there’s no way to examine activity going back to the mid -1800’s when global temperatures began to rise. From a statistical sampling standpoint there’s little to go by that helps support NOAA’s research. Sure there are plenty of storms in the data set, but not enough years or decades to use as a sample. The current up-tick might be a regular pattern, or something else.

(It should also be noted that the research papers regarding the multi-decadal signal were published either before the current up-tick or early in the 1995 -2003 time period.)

The report issued last week by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program - Our Changing Planet - does acknowledge the belief that human activities are causing the warming of the planet, but does not take the bold step suggesting any particular weather patterns - such as an increase in strong hurricanes - are caused by human influences. The report is, however, a departure from previous reports that tread softly on the human influence issue of global warming and climate change.

Our Changing Planet was published as a supplement to President Bush’s Fiscal Year 2004 and 2005 Budgets. It’s presumably included in the budgets because it discusses new and ongoing programs in climate science that will be paid for by the taxpayer.

For the updated outlook for the 2004 hurricane season visit NOAA’s National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ . For Our Changing Planet visit the U.S. Climate Change Science Program at http://www.climatescience.gov/ or the U.S. Global Change Research Program at http://www.usgcrp.gov/ .

(As an observation, first consider that NOAA does this: In the Atlantic basin, a tropical cyclone name is retired (that is, not to be used again for a new storm) if it is deemed to be quite noteworthy because of the damage and/or deaths it caused. This is to prevent confusion with a historically well-known cyclone with a current one in the Atlantic basin.

Then consider that of the 59 retired tropical cyclone names since 1954, 20 of those names retired have been since 1995.

Do not be shocked. The answer may be because the cost of damage has increased with more people moving to and buying properties in hurricane-prone areas. Property values skyrocketing in those areas would contribute to the increase in damage costs. Property values too, have likely exceeded rates of inflation.)

**** Late Breaking from the National Hurricane Center regarding Hurricane Ivan. A hurricane forecaster writes in a discussion:” It is unprecedented to have a hurricane this strong at such a low latitude in the Atlantic basin.” ****