Uncertain, Unpredictable Oil | Green Energy News

August 15, 2004 – Vol.9 No.21

UNCERTAIN, UNPREDICTABLE OIL.

One analyst with the BBC claimed that crude oil could reach $70 a barrel if unrest continues, or spreads in Iraq, and if voters in Venezuela don’t accept the results of the recent recall election and take to the streets.

The problem with oil – and it has always been a problem – is that its supply is uncertain and unpredictable. No one knows with any certainty how much is left in the ground. No one knows how many and what kinds of vehicles consumers in fast-growing China and India will buy or how far they’ll drive. General Motors has said, however, that China will soon be the second largest car market in the world after the U.S.

But with renewable energy the unknowns are small by comparison and can be dealt with.

We know the sun comes up every morning, but will it be cloudy that day so as to reduce solar energy output? With long term studies we can estimate how strong and how long the wind will blow at a particular location, but daily we can’t be exact. And we can’t always guarantee a good growing season for fuel crops, but often when one region has a bad year others have bumper crops.

You’d think that global leaders would start to accept the obvious trend with oil and would deliver the message: If we want to move forward we need reliable, predictable sources of energy. Oil is no longer it.