Essay On Oil | Green Energy News

July 11, 2004 – Vol.9 No.16

ESSAY ON OIL.

Gerard O'Neill, Chief Executive of Amarach Consulting, and President of the Association for Energy Economics in Ireland, points out, in an article for Amarach’s newsletter, that in a little over 24 months the price of oil has risen from $20 a barrel to $40. Further, he believes that $60 a barrel is possible in the next few years.

Though the article -- The $60 Barrel Question -- concerns the impact of high oil prices for Ireland, but those elsewhere should take note. Ireland depends on the automobile for the health of its economy. So does the U.S.

He goes on to state that of the 99 countries in the world that can produce significant amounts of oil, 52 have passed their peak oil production (the U.S. for instance). Further, their combined output is falling by an average of 4 percent per year and another 16 nations are at or near their peak (including China). All the remainder are expected to see peaks in the next 25 years.

The author also points to other articles that support the $60-a-barrel prediction.

--- A report published in March 2004 by oil analysts Douglas-Westwood entitled -- The World Oil Supply Report 2004-2050 -- concluded that a continuous growth in world oil demand of 3 percent per annum would lead to a global oil production peak in 2008. (Demand is currently growing by 2.9 percent.)

--- An article in the April 26th edition of Oil & Gas Journal on world oil production forecasts concluded that global crude oil production will peak at 81 million barrels per day in 2006-07.

--- An editorial in the April 2004 edition of Petroleum Review forecast that world oil production will have to grow at a unprecedented rate of 4.5 percent to both meet expanding demand and to offset the decline in the post-peak producing countries. That task, of increasing oil production where possible, will simply hasten the arrival of production peaks in those countries not there yet.

Review the article at Amarach Consulting's June/July issue of Tomorrow's News http://www.amarach.com/news/issue_18.html

Also be sure to visit the online version of the feature article in the June 2004 edition of National Geographic Magazine - The End of Cheap Oil at http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/index.html