What Oil Remains? | Green Energy News

June 27, 2004 – Vol.9 No.14

WHAT OIL REMAINS?

BP has released its extensive 53rd annual Statistical Review of World Energy - and it’s a must read.

As an analysis, however, let’s dissect a few statements in the Forward by Lord Browne, Chief Executive of the BP Madingley Group.

He says:

--- Firstly, the data illustrates the continued growth in reserves volumes across the world.

(The charts show that since 1983 - in 20 years - generally only some areas such as the Middle East, South America and Africa have shown a significant increase in reserves volume. Other areas have remained flat, or like the U.S., fallen.)

--- At current levels of consumption there are sufficient reserves to meet oil demand for some 40 years and meet natural gas demand for well over 60 years.

(Consumption will increase beyond current levels, naturally, as demand for transportation fuels grows. Demand for natural gas for cleaner power generation will also grow.

Yet will new discoveries - replacement reserves - keep up with the growth in consumption? The Forward seems optimistic.)

--- Reserves, globally have grown over time and it is clear that the issue of energy security, which has been so prominent over the last year, is driven not by a physical shortage of supply, but by the challenges of ensuring, in a world where demand and supply are not co-located, that there will be sufficient traded oil and gas to meet rising demand.

(Read this to say that nations with declining oil reserves will be increasingly reliant on those which still have it. The challenges will be great.)

--- China has now overtaken Japan as the world’s second largest consumer of oil behind the United States... (China) will be a major influence on the world energy scene from now on.

(Other studies indicate that China will have the world’s largest economy by 2050. China is continuing to grow in population and economically. With steady economic growth its consumption of energy per capita will grow steadily too. Imagine total energy consumption with over a billion people moving toward consumption at the same rate per capita as the U.S. with less than 300 million people. )

The report also covers coal, hydropower, wind and solar energy. Visit BP at http://www.bp.com/ (see Energy in focus)