The Things People Say | Green Energy News

June 6, 2004 – Vol.9 No.11

THE THINGS PEOPLE SAY.

As reported by the BBC from the annual conference in Berlin, Germany of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) energy investment banker Matthew Simmons was quoted as saying:

“Oil is far too cheap at the moment.”

“The figure I’d use is around $182 a barrel. We need to price oil realistically to control its demand. That is because global production is peaking.”

“If we price oil correctly it could give us time to find bridge fuels, fuels to fill the gap between an oil economy and a renewable economy. But I don't see that happening.”

(Simmons was a consultant to the U.S. Vice President Cheney Energy Task Force.)

And from Ali Bakhtiari head of strategic planning at Iran’s National Oil Company (NOIC):

“In my opinion, unfortunately, there will be no linear change. There will be only explosive change (in oil prices).”

“The people who will be the least affected will be the super poor, who already have no access to energy, and the super rich who do not care if oil hits $100 a barrel.”

(Iran is a member of OPEC.)

And from Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA):

“For the time being there is no spare capacity. But we expect demand to increase by the fourth quarter (of 2004) by three million barrels a day.”

“If Saudi Arabia does not increase supply by 3 million barrels a day by the end of the year we will face, how can I say this, it will be a very difficult. We will have difficult times. They must invest”

(Three million extra barrels a day would mean a 30 percent leap in output in just a few months.)

And from Dr. Colin Campbell, founder of ASPO:

“ Many reserve figures are highly questionable.” (Shell’s downward restatement of reserves by 23 percent point to the possibility that other companies have overstated as well.)

“We need transparency with the figures.”

“Consumer countries need to be able to audit fields, but at the same time flat earth economists who believe in endless growth need to change their ideas.”

(Dr. Campbell thinks that oil production and consumption need to be heavily regulated.)

And on the opposite side of the Atlantic in a speech at the Woodrow Wilson International Center in Washington, DC ExxonMobil chairman Lee Raymond said this:

“ We (Americans) do not have the resource base to be energyindependent. ... We simply cannot avoid significant reliance onoil and gas from the Middle East.”

“If we do not, as a nation, explore and develop energy fromprospective areas in the U.S., and remain committed to useenergy more efficiently, the consequence will be even greaterdependence on energy from areas such as the Middle East.”

(Raymond thinks that the U.S. should be exploring offshore California and Florida, the Rocky Mountains and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge as well as making oil investments in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caspian Sea region.)

Visit ASPO at http://www.peakoil.net/ (links for above quotes), the IEA at http://www.iea.org/ , and Simmons and Company http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/ .