Points of Interest | Green Energy News

February 29, 2004 – Vol.8 No.49

POINTS OF INTEREST.

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Most experts seem to agree that oil and natural gas will cease to be economically viable sources of energy sometime in this century.

When in the century is the big question. Some say that the time will come sooner than expected and we are unprepared.

Though we will never run entirely out of oil - there will always be some in the ground - over a period of time, years or decades, it will become painfully clear that oil and gas should not be relied upon to run and build economies. We’d like to avoid that pain, of course.

So when the end gets near who will tell us what to do, what to expect and how long we have to adapt to something else?

In a sane world the demise of oil and natural gas would be carefully managed, possibly by an international body, to make a smooth transition to other energy sources.

But the world is not sane. We’re relying, in part, on oil and natural gas suppliers - who will go to great lengths, any lengths, to stay in business - to tell us it’s all over. But would they? It’s not in their best interests.

For any company to come out and say that it is running low and wasn’t finding more would be near suicide. Stockholders would sell, share values would plunge and the company would lose investment dollars needed for continuing exploration and recovery. Shell’s recent re-accounting that reduced their oil and natural gas reserves by 20 percent sent shivers through the industry, sent them to court and caused their chairman to resign.

World leaders can’t tell us either. They can’t step up to the podium and tell the world it is running out oil and it is time to move on. Again, if they did oil prices would skyrocket, oil shares would drop like a set of car keys as would the world’s economies.

So, if no one of influence will tell us, and there is no international body to make plans, the demise of oil could be chaotic. So, how can we tell on our own that the slow decline of oil has begun?

We’ll know if over an extended period - years - prices tend to go up. However, in the middle of that period prices for oil and natural gas may drop occasionally to give people a false sense of confidence that there’s plenty out there. Taxes could also be loosened to keep prices at the pump down also giving a false sense of security.

We’ll also know when oil begins to shift from poorer markets to richer ones. The shift could bring prices down in rich markets for a time. The downside is that poorer nations will be starved of oil. Their economies will suffer badly.

We’ll know when the saner energy companies make big investments in other technologies such as renewables. The energy business can be very profitable. They’d certainly like to stay in it. General Electric’s investment in wind energy, and now solar, may be a sign that something’s up.

The automakers, too, who would like to stay in business, may begin to shift to other technologies. Though the world’s number one automaker, GM, hasn’t done much to shift away from conventional cars and trucks, the world’s second largest, Toyota, has.

We’ll know too when politicians loosen their resistance to energy efficiency and renewable energy policy. War, and the warming of once-poor relations with oil producing nations will come into play too.

And finally we’ll know when those who dispute the notion that oil and natural gas are failing have poor or unsubstantiated arguments defending their position.

For now the best thing to do is stay tuned to what researchers and analysts are saying about the looming problem. A good starting point is the Oil Depletion Analysis Center (ODAC), a non-profit organization whose purpose is to disseminate information - magazine, newspaper articles, books, etc - related to the subject. Take the time to visit them at http://www.odac-info.org/ . Another well known link is the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas at http://www.peakoil.net or http://www.asponews.org/ .