Hotter Planet | Green Energy News

May 25, 2003 – Vol.8 No.9

HOTTER PLANET.

Taking ALL factors into consideration the planet will be considerably hotter by the end of the 21st century than previously thought. That is the conclusion of a new study published by the American Geophysical Union.

The new study - the All-forcings experiment (ALL) - indicates that the average temperature on the planet could increase by 5.5 degrees Celsius (9.9 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100. In previous studies, where the interactions of various climate forcing factors were not taken into account, average temperatures were predicted to increase 4 degrees Celsius (7 degrees Fahrenheit).

ALL includes factors such as carbon dioxide emissions, non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases, human-produced sulfate aerosol levels, reflection of solar radiation associated with sulfate in the atmosphere, atmospheric ozone levels, levels of solar radiation, the effects of volcanic eruptions, and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. All of these when working in consort will affect the average temperature of the planet. Some factors will cause temperature to rise, others to cool, but the net effect is rising temperatures.

For example, air pollutants such as sulfates, which now reflect solar radiation and help keep the planet cooler, will probably be reduced during the century with the implementation of better pollution control equipment or the elimination of sulfur in fuel. Thus efforts for much needed cleaner air could, unfortunately, help warm the planet.

And, as the planet gets warmer so does the soil beneath our feet, which now stores considerable carbon dioxide. As it too warms, more carbon dioxide will be released than at current levels.

Volcanic eruptions, a natural climate forcing factor (the timing of which can’t be predicted with accuracy of course) can however be assumed to occur on occasion in the coming decades. Volcanic dust can be a cooling factor for the planet.

For a review of ALL published in American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Research Letters visit NASA Earth Observatory at http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ click News, Media Alerts. See New Climate Model Predicts Greater 21st Century Warming